Sales were flat for January compared to last year with 4,009 houses and condominiums changing hands in all the districts. This was the 3rd lowest number of sales for the month since 2009 and almost 10% below the average over the past 9 years.
Condo townhouse and high-rise suites took a significant 38.4% share of the market with 1,541 units being sold.
The January average sale price for all GTA homes came in at $748,328 – this was a very modest 1.7% increase from one year ago.
The active listing inventory is one of the strongest indicators of how slow or fast the market has been moving. The inventory average for the month of January compared to historical numbers decreased by 9.9% but were flat compared to last year at this time.
This is actually a good sign since we’re not being overwhelmed with high inventory levels and probably keeping us from seeing a slump in prices in some GTA locations.
The sales-to-listings OR percent-chance-of-selling ratio is how we determine what type of market we’re actually in. 24-28% is a neutral market, below 24% is a buyer’s market and above 28% is a seller’s market.
In January, that ratio finished at 33.5% - identical to last year. The GTA overall is barely into seller market territory so sellers may need to adjust their pricing expectations if they want to make a move.
The days-on-market average for GTA / Toronto homes was 33 days, 2 days slower than in December.
Here’s a snapshot summary of the significant real estate milestones for Toronto in January 2019… it looks like fewer people want to sell and there are fewer buyers in many of the outlying districts.
- 3rd lowest number of January sales since 2009 (4,009)
- The ratio of sales-to-listings was 33.5% in January – This is just barely into seller market territory
- The average sale price came in at $748,328 – which was up just 1.7% compared to January 2018 – Those mortgage ‘stress-test’ financing rules from one year ago have seriously affected our market
- Note that this overall market average was 2.6% lower than 2 years ago in January 2017
- Overall sales in the month were flat from one year ago
- The GTA real estate market overall averaged the days-on-market at 33 – one day slower than last year
- Detached home sales in January 2019 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 (65) were down 19% from last year (80)
- Affordability considerations are now shifting the market more to a condominium lifestyle – CONDO sales took a 38.4% share of the total market
- Downtown condo active listing numbers were lower in C01 by 3% and up in C08 by 48% from last year at this time
- January sales were down 28% in C01 and higher by 5.7% in C08 compared to 2018
- The downtown condo days-on-market average was 25-19 days – significantly faster than the overall market
- The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown was higher in C01 (48%) than in C08 (38.7%) due to the increased listing inventory in C08 but still higher than in the overall market.
- Building on this higher demand due to better affordability, condo appreciation in the two main downtown markets averaged 5-7.6% year-over-year… slower than at any time in 2018
- Markets in York Region and other 905 neighbourhoods have suffered the most from the market slowdown – all of York Region are continuing to show that they’re in serious ‘buyer market’ territory
- Expect sales and inventory to pick up as we progress into the spring market where listings and buyers are most active - buyers should watch for more pricing opportunities to get the condo or house of their dreams.
Here's the complete text version of the January 2019 Toronto Real Estate Market Report to read.
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