It seems the introduction of the mortgage stress test for all buyers has made an impact on the January GTA real estate market. Overall sales are down with the single ‘bright light’ being an increase in condominium units trading hands.
Sales were down 22% for January compared to last year with 4,019 houses and condominiums changing hands in all the districts. This was the lowest number of sales for the month since January 2009.
Condo townhouse and high-rise suites took a very high 39.7% share of the market with 1,594 units being sold. This was the 4th highest ever according to TREB.
The January average sale price for all GTA homes came in at $736,783 – this was a 4.1% decline from one year ago.
The active listing inventory is one of the strongest indicators of how slow or fast the market has been moving. The inventory average for the month of January compared to historical numbers was up 8% but increased by a big 136% from last year at this time.
However, this is occurring selectively with the ‘central core’ Toronto neighbourhoods still doing very well while the outer regions (Peel, York & Durham) may not be seeing the same level of activity.
The sales-to-listings OR percent-chance-of-selling ratio is how we determine what type of market we’re actually in. 24-28% is a neutral market, below 24% is a buyer’s market and above 28% is a seller’s market.
In January that ratio finished at 33.8% compared to 102% last year. The GTA is now into a very ‘lite’ seller market territory so sellers may need to adjust their expectations if they want to make a move.
The days-on-market average for Toronto homes was 32 days, 13 days slower than December.
Here’s a summary of the significant real estate milestones for January 2018… with dramatic changes in some neighbourhoods while others are still doing very well.
- Lowest January sales since 2009 (4,019)
- The ratio of sales-to-listings dropped back to 33.8% in January – Just barely over neutral market territory
- The average sale price came in at $736,783 – which was a negative 4.1% compared to January 2017 – partially because of more lower priced condo and fewer luxury home sales
- Sales in the month were down 22% from one year ago
- The GTA real estate market overall averaged the days-on-market at 32 – slower than any month last year
- Again, it’s becoming clear that first-time buyer aspirations are now shifting to a condominium lifestyle – CONDO sales took a ‘highest ever for January’ 39.7% of the total market in January
- Downtown condo listing numbers were up in C01 and down in C08 from last year at this time
- The downtown condo days-on-market average was 20-25 days – slightly faster than the overall market
- The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown ranged between 64.6% in C01 to 54.3% in C08 indicating a very strong seller’s market… well ahead of most of the GTA
- The average sale price for downtown condominium suites is still up by roughly $85,000 to $100,000 from January 2017
- Building on this higher demand due to better affordability, condo appreciation in the two main downtown markets averaged 16.5% year-over-year
- Markets in York Region and other 905 neighbourhoods have suffered the most from the market slowdown – York Region is now showing that they’re in ‘buyer market’ territory
- There may be an opportunity now in many neighbourhoods, with the increased inventory, for a buyer to find a home they fall in love with AND negotiate with the seller one-on-one for a change.
Watch the video to get the complete January 2018 Market Report details.
Here's the complete text version of the January 2018 Toronto Real Estate Market Report to read.
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