Finally… Some relief for buyers

Hi, I’m Thomas Cook from Toronto's Real Estate Team at RE/MAX and here is our April 2022 Toronto real estate market report.
 
As 5-year fixed rate mortgages hit 4.09%, the Toronto market is finally taking notice and sales are slowing.
 
Let’s review some of the Toronto Real Estate Board statistics and see what’s happened.
 
The last time April numbers came in this low (8,008 sales of houses and condos across the GTA), in the midst of the typical busy spring market was back in 2018.  This was 41% below April sales in 2021.
 
Condo townhouse and high-rise suite sales mirrored that of the overall market and were lower by 36%.  Overall, 2,825 units were sold in the month.
 
The April 2022 average sale price for all GTA homes came in at $1,254,436… a big 15% increase compared to one year ago.  If you compare this April to April 2020, two years ago, the average sale price is up 53%.
 
The active listing inventory is one of the strongest indicators of how slow or fast the market has been moving.  The ‘active listing’ inventory for the month of April increased dramatically from the month before… an approximate 30% increase to 13,098.
 
The sales-to-listings OR percent-chance-of-selling ratio is how we determine what type of market we’re actually in.  24-28% is a neutral market, below 24% is a buyer’s market and above 28% is a seller’s market.
 
With the market shift, the April ratio dropped substantially to 61.1% indicating a not-so-frothy, but still maintaining, a seller’s market.
 
The days-on-market average for GTA / Toronto homes was 3 days slower at 11 days.

Here’s a snapshot summary of the significant real estate milestones for Toronto in APRIL 2022 as we begin the year.

• April sales (8,008) were 41% below last year and haven’t been this low since April 2018
• Active Listings (13,098) were 12% higher than last year and 29% above March
• The ratio of sales-to-listings saw a substantial decline to 61% in April– still in seller market territory but not nearly so frothy as previous months
• The April average sale price came in at $1,254,436– and rose to 15% above one year ago and 53% above the April average in 2020
• This average sale price was still higher than any month in 2021
• The GTA real estate market overall averaged a quick 11 days-on-market
• Detached home sales in April 2022 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 were down 9% (712 houses) while condo apartment sales over $2M were lower by 24% (26 suites) compared to April 2021
• The CONDO townhouse / highrise share of the market came in at 35.3% during the month and condo sales (2,825) declined at the same rate as the overall market
• Downtown condo active listing numbers were varied… by -3.7% in C01 and by +8.9% in C08 from last year
• April year-over-year downtown condo sales were lower in both C01 (-39%) and in C08 (-46%) compared to 2021 with 3-month rolling average sale prices showing 15.9% to 21% increases year-over-year
• The downtown condo days-on-market average increased slightly to 13 days (C01) & 12 days (C08)
• The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown in C01 was 56.2% and 42% in C08 – a dramatic drop from the month previous
• April 2022 turned out to be the turning point we’ve all been waiting for.  Those higher interest rates, higher inflation numbers and the war in Ukraine have all combined to finally slow everything down
• April saw detached homes in the 905 appreciate year-over-year by an average of 17% and 905 condominium average sale prices rise by an average of 18%.  Sales here also declined substantially from one year ago
• As I predicted last month, our typically busy spring market has peaked earlier than normal in March.  I’ve seen these market lulls before caused by external factors and, in almost all cases, the market confidence has been regained after some months. The next 3-6 months will be interesting