This summer is a write-off but what’s the outlook for the fall?

Hi, I’m Thomas Cook from Toronto's Real Estate Team at RE/MAX and here is our July 2022 Toronto real estate market report.
 
July gave us some sales numbers that were the lowest in over two decades. How long will this last and when will a recovery (of sorts) start?
 
Let’s review some of the Toronto Real Estate Board statistics and see what’s happened.
 
The last time July sales numbers came in this low (4,912 sales of houses and condos across the GTA), at the end of a typical busy spring market was all the way back in 2000, 22 years ago.  This was 47% below July sales in 2021.
 
Condo townhouse and high-rise suite sales mirrored that of the overall market and were lower by 49%.  Overall, 1,752 units were sold in the month.
 
The July 2022 average sale price for all GTA homes came in at $1,074,754… a negligible 1.2% increase compared to one year ago.  If you compare this July to July 2020, two years ago, the average sale price is still up a respectable 13.9%.
 
The active listing inventory is one of the strongest indicators of how slow or fast the market has been moving.  The ‘active listing’ inventory for the month of July decreased marginally from the month before… an approximate 4.7% decrease to 15,334.  This is a more normal amount of homes for sale that gives buyers more of a choice.
 
The sales-to-listings OR percent-chance-of-selling ratio is how we determine what type of market we’re actually in.  24-28% is a neutral market, below 24% is a buyer’s market and above 28% is a seller’s market.
 
With the market continuing to shift, the July ratio dropped significantly to 32% indicating almost a balance between being a buyer’s or seller’s market.
 
The overall days-on-market average for GTA / Toronto homes was 4 days slower at 19 days.
 
Here’s a snapshot summary of the significant real estate milestones for Toronto in JULY 2022 as we swing through the summer months.

• July sales (4,912) were 47.4% below last year and the lowest since July 22 years ago
• Active Listings (15,334) were 57.6% higher than last year and 4.7% below June
• The ratio of sales-to-listings saw a dramatic decline to 32% in July– almost into buyer market territory and down dramatically from 61% just three months ago
• The July average sale price came in at $1,074,754 – a negligible rise of just 1.2% above one year ago but still 13.9% above the July average in 2020
• The GTA real estate market overall has slowed slightly to 19 days-on-market
• Have we bottomed out yet?  Maybe, or maybe not.  We might continue to drop slightly or level off over the next 2-4 months but there’s a good chance we can expect a modest recovery starting in the fall season
• Detached home sales in July 2022 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 were down 48% (250 houses) while condo apartment sales over $2M were lower by 47% (10 suites) compared to July 2021
• The CONDO townhouse / highrise share of the market came in at 35.7% during the month and condo sales (1,752) declined by 49% from 2021
• Downtown condo active listing numbers were up by +24% in C01 and by +14% in C08 from last year
• July year-over-year downtown condo sales were lower in both C01 (-48%) and in C08 (-39%) compared to 2021 with 3-month rolling average sale prices still showing +7.3% increases in both districts year-over-year
• The downtown condo days-on-market average increased slightly to 22 days in both C01 and C08
• The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown dropped in C01 to 26.9% and 31.5% in C08 which are both either in or close to buyer market territory
• Right now we’re in the ‘traditional’ summer vacation sales doldrums with mortgage rates stabilizing or declining slightly and a lot of media pessimism
• July saw detached homes in the 905 districts decline year-over-year by about 2% and 905 condominium average sale prices rise by an average of 11.9%.  Sales here also declined substantially (-47% to -53%) from one year ago
• If you’re a seller, expect a ‘rough ride’ over the next few months as interest rates and inflation compete with the war in Ukraine to slow down price expectations while buyers with decent down payments can take advantage and expect to negotiate prices with sellers

Thomas Cook
647-962-1650