Toronto's Average Sale Price Is 'Bouncing Along The Bottom'
Hi, I’m Thomas Cook from Toronto's Real Estate Team at RE/MAX and here is our November 2022 Toronto real estate market report.
The November average sale price continued the trend we’ve seen for the last five months.
Let’s review some of the Toronto Real Estate Board statistics and see what’s happened.
The last time November sales numbers came in this low (4,544 sales of houses and condos across the GTA), towards the end of the fall market was all the way back in 2008, 14 years ago, when we got hit with that big recession and US bank meltdown. This was 49.5% below November sales in 2021.
Condo townhouse and high-rise suite sales mirrored that of the overall market and were lower by 54% from last year. Overall, 1,660 units were sold in the month and the lowest since 2008.
The November 2022 average sale price for all GTA homes came in at $1,079,395… a negative 7.2% decline compared to one year ago. If you compare this November to November 2020, two years ago, the average sale price is still up a respectable 13%.
The active listing inventory is one of the strongest indicators of how slow or fast the market has been moving. The ‘active listing’ inventory for the month of November was the lowest since March. This is 15% below the average November listings numbers over the past 12 years.
The sales-to-listings OR percent-chance-of-selling ratio is how we determine what type of market we’re actually in. 24-28% is a neutral market, below 24% is a buyer’s market and above 28% is a seller’s market.
With the market continuing to shift, the November ratio dropped slightly to 38.2% indicating a trend towards a softening of our mild sellers’ market.
The overall days-on-market average for GTA / Toronto homes was 1 day slower at 22 days.
Here’s a snapshot summary of the significant real estate milestones for Toronto in November 2022 as summer ends and we hit the middle of the fall market.
- November sales (4,544) were 49.5% below last year and the lowest for the month in the last 14 years since 2008
- Active Listings (11,910) were 96% higher than last year but about the same as in October
- The ratio of sales-to-listings declined slightly to 38.2% in November– heading back slightly toward seller market territory
- The November average sale price came in at $1,079,395– a decline of -7.2% from one year ago but still 13% above the November average in 2020
- The GTA real estate market overall has slowed slightly to 22 days-on-market
- We seem to be ‘bouncing along the bottom’ at 14-year lows for sales numbers and between $1.075 and 1.09 million in average sales price over the last five months
- Detached home sales in November 2022 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 were down 61% (247 houses) while condo apartment sales over $2M were lower by 45% (17 suites) compared to November 2021
- The CONDO townhouse / highrise share of the market came in at 36.5% during the month and condo sales (1,660) declined by just under 54% from 2021
- Downtown condo active listing numbers were up by +31.3% in C01 and +20.6% in C08 from last year
- November year-over-year downtown condo sales were lower in both C01 (-53.8%) and in C08 (-55.9%) compared to 2021 with 3-month rolling average sale prices showing a flat market in C01 and down -3.8% in C08
- The downtown condo days-on-market average was steady at 23 days in C01 and slowing slightly to 28 days in C08
- The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown moved up slightly in C01 to 27.4% and up to 30.7% in C08 – a slight strengthening towards neutral market territory
- As an investor, a big positive is the super busy rental market. Rental prices are climbing across the board for almost every type of rental property
- November saw detached home prices in the 905 districts decline year-over-year by -10.9% and 905 condominium average sale prices were basically flat Sales here also declined substantially (-48% to -56%) from one year ago
The problem has been that, even though what they’d buy is less expensive than it was, sellers are reluctant to put their homes on the market to move up because they may have a very low mortgage interest rate currently. That problem is not going away soon unfortunately.
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