Toronto's Market Stabilized In August With Fewer Listings

Hi, I’m Thomas Cook from Toronto's Real Estate Team at RE/MAX and here is our August 2022 Toronto real estate market report.
 
Fewer listings in August caused the market to sustain some momentum resulting in a flat average sale price month over month.
 
Let’s review some of the Toronto Real Estate Board statistics and see what’s happened.
 
The last time August sales numbers came in this low (5,627 sales of houses and condos across the GTA), at the end of a summer market was all the way back in 2002, 20 years ago.  This was 34% below August sales in 2021.
 
Condo townhouse and high-rise suite sales mirrored that of the overall market and were lower by 42%.  Overall, 1,918 units were sold in the month.
 
The August 2022 average sale price for all GTA homes came in at $1,079,500… a negligible 0.9% increase compared to one year ago.  If you compare this August to August 2020, two years ago, the average sale price is still up a respectable 13.5%.
 
The active listing inventory is one of the strongest indicators of how slow or fast the market has been moving.  The ‘active listing’ inventory for the month of August decreased from the month before… an approximate 13% decrease to 13,305.  This is still 17% below the average August listings numbers over the past 12 years.
 
The sales-to-listings OR percent-chance-of-selling ratio is how we determine what type of market we’re actually in.  24-28% is a neutral market, below 24% is a buyer’s market and above 28% is a seller’s market.
 
With the market continuing to shift, the August ratio increased significantly to 42.3% indicating a swing towards a very moderate seller’s market.
 
The overall days-on-market average for GTA / Toronto homes was 3 days slower at 22 days.
 
Here’s a snapshot summary of the significant real estate milestones for Toronto in AUGUST 2022 as we swing through the summer months.

• August sales (5,627) were 34% below last year and the lowest since August 20 years ago
• Active Listings (13,305) were 62% higher than last year but 13% below July
• The ratio of sales-to-listings saw a bounce back to 42.3% in August– up into moderate sellers market territory although down dramatically from 61% just three months ago
• The August average sale price came in at $1,079,500 – a negligible rise of just 0.9% above one year ago but still 13.5% above the August average in 2020
• The GTA real estate market overall has slowed slightly to 22 days-on-market
• Does this indicate a market stabilizing?  Maybe, or maybe not.  If our listing inventory doesn’t balloon up, there’s a good chance we can expect a either a flat market or a modest sales recovery starting in the fall season
• Detached home sales in August 2022 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 were down 34% (286 houses) while condo apartment sales over $2M were lower by 59% (12 suites) compared to August 2021
• The CONDO townhouse / highrise share of the market came in at 34.1% during the month and condo sales (1,918) declined by 42% from 2021
• Downtown condo active listing numbers were up by +18% in C01 and by +15% in C08 from last year
• August year-over-year downtown condo sales were lower in both C01 (-37%) and in C08 (-43%) compared to 2021 with 3-month rolling average sale prices still showing +8.5% increase in C01 and +9.5% increase in C08
• The downtown condo days-on-market average increased slightly to 24 days in C01 and 27 days in C08
• The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown increased in C01 to 40.9% but remained flat at 31% in C08 – a slight trend towards a moderate sellers market
• What happens next will depend on what the Bank of Canada does to interest rates in the coming days – higher mortgage rates will definitely deter buyers from entering the market
• August saw detached home prices in the 905 districts decline year-over-year by -3.7% but 905 condominium average sale prices still rose by an average of 6.0%.  Sales here also declined substantially (-30% to -41%) from one year ago

If you’re a seller who ‘has to sell’, you’ll need to be realistic.  Those high sale prices we saw in the spring are in the ‘fantasy realm’ now.  But remember, if you sell for less, you’ll be able to buy for less too. 

Thomas Cook
Thomas@LivingInToronto.com
647-962-1650

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