Hi, I’m Thomas Cook from Toronto's Real Estate Team at RE/MAX and here is our October 2022 Toronto real estate market report.
The most dramatic statistic for October is the big drop in downtown condo sales.
Let’s review some of the Toronto Real Estate Board statistics and see what’s happened.
The last time October sales numbers came in this low (4,961 sales of houses and condos across the GTA), in the middle of the fall market was all the way back in 2000, 22 years ago. This was 49% below October sales in 2021.
Condo townhouse and high-rise suite sales mirrored that of the overall market and were lower by almost 57-60%. Overall, 1,725 units were sold in the month.
The October 2022 average sale price for all GTA homes came in at $1,089,428… a negative 5.7% decline compared to one year ago. If you compare this October to October 2020, two years ago, the average sale price is still up a respectable 12.5%.
The active listing inventory is one of the strongest indicators of how slow or fast the market has been moving. The ‘active listing’ inventory for the month of October were the lowest since March. This is 27% below the average October listings numbers over the past 12 years.
The sales-to-listings OR percent-chance-of-selling ratio is how we determine what type of market we’re actually in. 24-28% is a neutral market, below 24% is a buyer’s market and above 28% is a seller’s market.
With the market continuing to shift, the October ratio recovered slightly to 41.3% indicating a bit of movement towards sellers’ market territory.
The overall days-on-market average for GTA / Toronto homes was 2 days faster at 21 days.
Here’s a snapshot summary of the significant real estate milestones for Toronto in October 2022 as summer ends and we hit the middle of the fall market.
- October sales (4,961) were 49% below last year and the lowest for the month in the last 22 years
- Active Listings (12,023) were 55% higher than last year but 11% below September
- The ratio of sales-to-listings bounced back slightly to 41.3% in October– heading back slightly toward seller market territory
- The October average sale price came in at $1,089,428– a decline of -5.7% from one year ago but still 12.5% above the October average in 2020
- The GTA real estate market overall has quickened slightly to 21 days-on-market
- We seem to be cruising along at 20-year lows for sales numbers and at just under $1.1 million in average sales price over the last four months and climbing ever so slightly since July
- Detached home sales in October 2022 with a purchase price over $2,000,000 were down 61% (259 houses) while condo apartment sales over $2M were lower by 59% (12 suites) compared to October 2021
- The CONDO townhouse / highrise share of the market came in at 34.8% during the month and condo sales (1,725) declined by just over 53% from 2021
- Downtown condo active listing numbers were up by +19.3% in C01 and about the same in C08 from last year
- October year-over-year downtown condo sales were lower in both C01 (-60.5%) and in C08 (-57%) compared to 2021 with 3-month rolling average sale prices showing a flat market in both C01 and C08
- The downtown condo days-on-market average quickened slightly to 23 days in C01 and 26 days in C08
- The ratio of sales-to-listings for condos downtown dropped in C01 to 22.4% and down to 24.4% in C08 – a significant drop into buyer market territory
- As an investor, a big positive is the super busy rental market. Rental prices are climbing across the board for almost every type of rental property
- October saw detached home prices in the 905 districts decline year-over-year by -11.8% but 905 condominium average sale prices still rose by a modest 5.7%. Sales here also declined substantially (-47% to -54%) from one year ago
If you’re a seller who ‘has to sell’, you’ll need to be realistic, or maybe consider renting your property. Those high sale prices we saw in the spring are now in the ‘fantasy realm’. But remember, if you sell for less, you’ll now be able to buy for less too.
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